Senegal

Senegal has a population of approximately 19.4 million and a projected nominal GDP of about US$40.47 billion in 2026, representing roughly 1.3% of Africa's population and about 1% of the continent's GDP. The economy is supported by agriculture, services, mining and manufacturing, and has historically been less dependent on hydrocarbons than many African energy producers.

The country's economic outlook has changed significantly following the start of commercial hydrocarbon production. Oil production commenced at the offshore Sangomar field in June 2024, while first gas from the cross-border Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project with Mauritania was achieved in January 2025. These developments have strengthened Senegal's growth prospects, with real GDP growth accelerating from 4.3% in 2023 to 6.9% in 2024 and projected to exceed 10% in 2025, supported by rising oil production alongside continued growth in agriculture and services.

At the same time, Senegal faces important fiscal challenges. Public debt remains high, having reached approximately 100% of GDP in recent years, while the government continues to implement fiscal reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability. The emergence of the oil and gas sector therefore presents an opportunity to strengthen public finances, expand exports and support industrial development, while ensuring that new hydrocarbon revenues contribute to broader economic growth and long-term fiscal sustainability.

Senegal's total energy supply is estimated at approximately 220 PJ, equivalent to about 12.9 GJ per capita. The country's energy system continues to depend heavily on biomass and imported petroleum products, although the development of domestic natural gas is expected to gradually reshape the energy mix over the coming years. Electricity generation remains largely fossil fuel-based, with fossil fuels accounting for about 80.2% of total net generation, renewable energy contributing the remaining 19.8%, supported mainly by hydropower from the Manantali Dam, operated under the Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du Fleuve Sénégal (OMVS).

Installed electricity generation capacity has increased from about 1,555 MW to approximately 1.9 GW, driven largely by Independent Power Producers (IPPs), which now supply most of the country's grid electricity. Despite this expansion, electricity access remains uneven, with urban electrification reaching about 97%, compared with approximately 60% in rural areas, highlighting the continued need for investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure.

A major shift in Senegal's electricity sector is now underway following the commencement of domestic natural gas production. Oil currently accounts for roughly 44% of electricity generation, while natural gas already contributes about 25%, with output expected to increase as supplies from the offshore Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project are fully integrated into the domestic power system. This transition forms the foundation of Senegal's long-term Gas-to-Power Strategy, which seeks to replace imported liquid fuels by converting existing thermal plants and developing new gas-fired generation supplied by domestic resources.

At the same time, Senegal continues to expand renewable energy alongside natural gas. Under its Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), the government aims to increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to 40% by 2030, while strengthening transmission infrastructure and expanding electricity access. Together, these initiatives are intended to improve energy security, reduce dependence on imported fuels and support a more reliable and diversified electricity system.